Artificial intelligence in public health: the potential of epidemic early warning systems.

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) to generate automated early warnings in epidemic surveillance by harnessing vast open-source data with minimal human intervention has the potential to be both revolutionary and highly sustainable. AI can overcome the challenges faced by weak health systems by detecting epidemic signals much earlier than traditional surveillance. AI-based digital surveillance is an adjunct to-not a replacement of-traditional surveillance and can trigger early investigation, diagnostics and responses at the regional level. This narrative review focuses on the role of AI in epidemic surveillance and summarises several current epidemic intelligence systems including ProMED-mail, HealthMap, Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources, BlueDot, Metabiota, the Global Biosurveillance Portal, Epitweetr and EPIWATCH. Not all of these systems are AI-based, and some are only accessible to paid users. Most systems have large volumes of unfiltered data; only a few can sort and filter data to provide users with curated intelligence. However, uptake of these systems by public health authorities, who have been slower to embrace AI than their clinical counterparts, is low. The widespread adoption of digital open-source surveillance and AI technology is needed for the prevention of serious epidemics.

Uncertainty Estimation With Neural Processes for Meta-Continual Learning.

The ability to evaluate uncertainties in evolving data streams has become equally, if not more, crucial than building a static predictor. For instance, during the pandemic, a model should consider possible uncertainties such as governmental policies, meteorological features, and vaccination schedules. Neural process families (NPFs) have recently shone a light on predicting such uncertainties by bridging Gaussian processes (GPs) and neural networks (NNs). Their abilities to output average predictions and the acceptable variances, i.e., uncertainties, made them suitable for predictions with insufficient data, such as meta-learning or few-shot learning. However, existing models have not addressed continual learning which imposes a stricter constraint on the data access. Regarding this, we introduce a member meta-continual learning with neural process (MCLNP) for uncertainty estimation. We enable two levels of uncertainty estimations: the local uncertainty on certain points and the global uncertainty p(z) that represents the function evolution in dynamic environments. To facilitate continual learning, we hypothesize that the previous knowledge can be applied to the current task, hence adopt a coreset as a memory buffer to alleviate catastrophic forgetting. The relationships between the degree of global uncertainties with the intratask diversity and model complexity are discussed. We have estimated prediction uncertainties with multiple evolving types including abrupt/gradual/recurrent shifts. The applications encompass meta-continual learning in the 1-D, 2-D datasets, and a novel spatial-temporal COVID dataset. The results show that our method outperforms the baselines on the likelihood and can rebound quickly even for heavily evolved data streams.